Backtest
The backtest — and why it isn't the headline argument
MODEL-1 has a backtest behind it: 14 years of GBPUSD data. It used to sit on the homepage as the main proof. It doesn't any more — and not because I dislike the numbers.
The backtest came out positive: a long history, a positive expectancy per trade. Its weakness wasn't the numbers, it was the frequency — the mechanical rules took so few trades that it would take years to draw a reliable conclusion from them. That's why it was never meant to be the argument the site rests on.
It also tested an older, simpler version of the system than the one I trade today. Since then the model has gained a first-candle-of-session filter, a 3R space check, relative strength, DXY confirmation and context grading. The system is still being tuned, and the live journal now captures more setups — one to two trades a week on average. That's where it's decided now, not here.
What the backtest showed
- Data
- GBPUSD · 2012–2026
- Expectancy
- +0.24 R / trade
- Frequency
- ~19 trades / year
- Risk in the test
- 0.5%
Results are in R, not percent — R is independent of risk. The backtest ran at 0.5% risk; live I trade 0.3%. A small sample and an older version of the system mean this is context, not proof.