Trades

Case studies

Breakdowns of the model's real trades — the chart analysis next to the actual account execution. Context, sweep, entry, result. No retouching.

A note on risk in the breakdowns below: trades before 20 July 2026 show 0.5% (the actual risk at the time); since then I've traded at 0.3% — see System. Historical numbers don't get rewritten.

Side

Type

Result

10 of 10 breakdowns

EURUSD · SHORT · 20 Jul 2026Discretionary

Two valid signals, one allowed trade — EURUSD vs. GBPUSD

+3.0 R

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Context: A rare morning: the mechanical rules fired a valid Model 1 signal on two pairs at once — EURUSD and GBPUSD. Both met the same conditions (sweep, close confirmation, DXY confirmation), but the rule is clear: at most one trade per strategy per day. A choice had to be made.
Pre-trade — preparation: The deciding factor was relative strength: sterling was holding stronger against the dollar than the euro at that moment, so shorting EURUSD offered a cleaner path down than shorting GBPUSD. The decision was made before entry, not in hindsight — which is exactly what defines a discretionary exception.
Trigger: A sweep of the Asian session high and a close back below the Model 1 level confirmed the EURUSD signal; DXY mirrored it long. GBPUSD had a technically identical configuration at the same moment.
Entry & management: Short 1.14419 at the retest of the Model 1 level, stop 7.7 pips beyond the sweep extreme, fixed 3R target. Set & forget.
In-trade — while in the position: No interference with the position — price ran almost straight to the target.
Result: TP hit at 1.14187 noticeably faster than the comparable (untaken) GBPUSD signal, which didn't reach its own target until the afternoon. The faster move matched the relative-strength read — the euro was the weaker side at that moment.
Post-mortem — the lesson: In fairness: a GBPUSD short would have won too under the same rules — it just reached target later. So this trade doesn't prove the relative-strength read carries an edge; it only shows that the one-trade-a-day rule forces a real decision that would otherwise never get made. Whether this selection filter adds value beyond "take the first valid signal" is something only dozens of similar situations in the journal will show.

Comparable setup on the other pair (trade not taken)

EURUSD · SHORT · 17 Jul 2026Discretionary

Asia high sweep with DXY confirmation

+3.0 R

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Context: The London session pushed price above the Asian range high — liquidity resting above. The dollar index was mirroring a long setup: DXY confirmation for a euro short.
Pre-trade — preparation: Preparation before entry: liquidity mapped above the Asian range high, the mirrored setup on DXY as confirmation, the scenario written before it played out. The entry could only come from a prepared plan, not from reacting to the chart.
Trigger: The sweep candle defined the Model 1 level; a close back below it confirmed. Limit at the retest — both activation and trigger in the London session.
Entry & management: Short 1.14457, stop 6.6 pips behind the sweep extreme, fixed 3R target. Set & forget.
In-trade — while in the position: After the limit filled, no interference — stop and target stayed all afternoon where the plan had placed them. Set & forget means the only job in a position is to do nothing.
Result: Target hit in the afternoon. +3.0 R, plan followed — the whole trade is on the screenshot straight from the MODEL-1 indicator.

GBPUSD · LONG · 17 Jul 2026Mechanical

Morning sweep, stop-loss — and a lesson

−1.0 R

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Context: D1 bias long, liquidity below the Asian range low and below PDL. The very first candle of the London session took the liquidity and the setup was on.
Trigger: Sweep, confirmation, retest — all by the rules. But a sweep right at 8:00 is often just the first leg of a deeper decline.
Entry & management: Long at the retest, stop 10 pips behind the extreme, 0.5% risk. No interference with the position.
Result: The market continued down into the stop. −1.0 R, plan followed — a loss by the rules is a cost, not a failure. The same day led to a tool improvement: a first-candle filter for the session.
Post-mortem — the lesson: A sweep by the very first candle of the London session is more often the start of a deeper expansion than its end. The loss played out by the rules, but it exposed a weak spot in the definition — the result is a first-candle-of-session filter in the MODEL-1 indicator. This is exactly the kind of lesson the journal exists for.

GBPUSD · SHORT · 15 Jul 2026Discretionary

A discretionary short — profitable, and still flagged in the journal

+3.0 R

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Context: A setup against the daily bias — the mechanical rules vetoed it. I took it as a conscious discretionary exception based on reading the context, decided before entry.
Trigger: A prominent sweep candle above liquidity, confirmation by close and a retest of the Model 1 level.
Entry & management: Short at the retest, stop 9.8 pips, 3R target. Execution exactly by the process: 0.5% risk, set & forget.
Result: +3.0 R — marked in the journal as discretionary, separate from the mechanical model. Discipline held; whether discretionary selection carries an edge will be decided by the collected data, not by impressions.

GBPUSD · SHORT · 14 Jul 2026Discretionary

Second discretionary short in a row

+3.0 R

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Context: A similar picture to the day after: liquidity above the range, a trade against the mechanical bias — a discretionary exception.
Trigger: Sweep, confirmation, retest. Stop 19 pips — a wider grab than usual.
Entry & management: Short at the Model 1 retest, fixed 3R target, no position management.
Result: +3.0 R, again marked as discretionary in the journal. The mechanical and discretionary branches are evaluated separately — these records will decide whether discretionary selection carries an edge.

Before the public journal

Breakdowns from February 2026, before the journal was running. Recorded retrospectively from FTMO account executions — I treat them as an illustration of the mechanics, not as part of the track record. They don't count towards the journal's statistics, which is why they show only a target hit (TP ✓), not an R value like the live trades.

EURUSD · SHORT · 27 Feb 2026Discretionary

Model 1 + SMT divergence

TP ✓

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Context: Price ran above the high of the day into a premium zone. The dollar index printed a new high while the euro did not — SMT divergence confirmed the buy side was weakening.
Trigger: A liquidity sweep above the range and a close back below the Model 1 level; an inverse FVG added extra confluence.
Entry & management: Short after confirmation, stop above the sweep extreme. Executed in MT5 exactly to plan.
Result: Price expanded back through the whole range to the target. Plan followed.

EURUSD · SHORT · 25 Feb 2026Discretionary

Run into Prev Day High, fixed 1:3

TP ✓

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Context: The market spent the whole morning climbing into liquidity above the previous day's high (CRH). Sellers' stop-losses were waiting above the level — fuel for the reversal.
Trigger: A sweep of the CRH and a confirmed return below the Model 1 level.
Entry & management: Short at the retest, stop beyond the extreme, target fixed at 1:3. Three hours in the position without a single intervention.
Result: Target hit (execution 1.17973 → 1.17780). Set & forget exactly as defined.

EURUSD · SHORT · 19 Feb 2026Discretionary

M15 Model 1 entry at the CRH

TP ✓

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Context: The day's range was defined and price was testing its upper edge. The 4H candle's PO3 context suggested distribution.
Trigger: An M15 sweep above the CRH and a close back inside — the Model 1 entry level right at the edge of the range.
Entry & management: Short 1.18006, stop above the sweep, target at the opposite side of the range.
Result: TP 1.17832 hit in 81 minutes. After collecting the liquidity, the market drove through the range without hesitation.

EURUSD · SHORT · 5 Feb 2026Discretionary

CRH sweep + bearish order block

TP ✓

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Context: The morning expansion up collected the range high; a bearish order block remained below it, where sellers had taken control.
Trigger: A return below the order block after the sweep — execution refined on M5.
Entry & management: Short 1.17996, stop above the block, target below the low of the day.
Result: TP 1.17847 in 49 minutes. The fastest of the documented trades.

GBPUSD · LONG · 6 Jul 2026Mechanical

PDL sweep and return to range

+3.0 R

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Context: D1 bias long. The Asian and early London sessions pressed price into the previous day's low, where liquidity was resting.
Trigger: A sweep of the PDL and a quick return back inside the range — the sweep candle defined the Model 1 level, confirmed at 10:30.
Entry & management: Limit at the retest of the level, stop beyond the sweep extreme (12 pips), 0.5% risk. 1:3 target, no moving it.
Result: Target reached within the day. +3.0 R, plan followed — the public journal's first record.

The journal grows at a pace of at most one trade per strategy a day — and a losing trade will get the same space as a winning one. A loss breakdown shows whether the rules failed, or the discipline did.

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